I’ve been trying to approach this from what could be different between your VMs, and unless there is a difference between the VMs handling of ethernet somehow, I don’t see how it could be MTU.
So on the packet sniff, are there any large packets, and which side was the first to not reply? Were there only those 4 packets in your screenshot?, otherwise, Did any packets come in the ethernet and not go out aanet or vs versa? (basically, as you mentioned, we’re trying to see if packets were dropped somewhere). If you browse to the routeros VM itself, does it come up (I mean the routeros running in the VM. routeros has a web interface.) If you lower the MTU on whatever you’re browsing from to 1480 or less, and try to browse what happens?
Did you ever try those large pings (from the router and from your pc (if its windows ping -s 1400, add -f to set don’t-fragment flag)), you can experiment with different sizes and dont-fragment options to figure out what the MTU is between you and whatever you’re pinging.
Basically its a matter of poking and prodding until you figure out where the problem is, which as I recall is that the two VMs are configured identically (except for memory) but aren’t behaving identically (and the broken one is the one with your license); which means something that makes a difference, somewhere, isn’t really identical, either with the VMs themselves, or the stuff in the VMs, or your upstream is seeing some difference and acting differently. (firewalls based on mac-addresses for instance, although why they would only kill web traffic seems strange).
Another thing you could try, is on the VM that works, open FILE in winbox, click on backup. copy off the resulting file, move it into the other VM’s FILE (making sure the other VM is running the same routeros version with the same packages enabled), and do a restore. That should ensure both have an identical configuration. (however, if you’ve renamed any physical interfaces (from routerOS’s point of view) (I don’t remember that you did), it won’t restore properly).
MTU issues generally arise because one end has a different MTU than the other, AND someone along the way thought it was a good idea to block ICMP (it isn’t, at least not bluntly), AND fragmentation isn’t allowed or blocked somewhere. You have change-MSS enabled on your pppoe connection in both VMs as I remember, so that should mitigate that. (simplified; change-mss alters the initial tcp packets passing through the lower-MTU PPPoE connection so the other side (or your side) doesn’t ever try to send too-large packets to start with). Old routerOS versions had a bug with this, and didn’t apply change-MSS correctly, I forget when exactly it was fixed, but I think it was in the early 3.x or very late 2.9.x series. If there is an old RouterOS with PPPoE somewhere between you and the other end, that could be an issue, however that wouldn’t change between your VMs.
I rambled a bit, I hope there is something helpful in there.