We encountered the same issue when using a Starlink dish on the WAN interface.
After receiving a DHCP NAK from the upstream server, the IP address changed, but existing connection tracking entries were not purged, resulting in broken NAT translations and failed outbound connections.
Are there any updates from support?
[admin@_REDACTED] > /ip/firewall/nat/print
Flags: X - disabled, I - invalid; D - dynamic
0 ;;; defconf: masquerade
chain=srcnat action=masquerade out-interface-list=WAN ipsec-policy=out,none
[admin@_REDACTED] > /interface/list/member/print
Columns: LIST, INTERFACE
# LIST INTERFACE
;;; defconf
0 LAN bridge
;;; defconf
1 WAN ether1
[admin@_REDACTED] > /log/print
04-25 04:17:24 dhcp,info dhcp-client on ether1 got IP address YYY.YYY.YYY.YYY
04-25 04:19:16 dhcp,critical,error dhcp-client on ether1 lost IP address YYY.YYY.YYY.YYY - received NAK from dhcp server ZZZ.ZZZ.ZZ.1
04-25 04:19:17 dhcp,info dhcp-client on ether1 got IP address ZZZ.ZZZ.ZZ.ZZ
[admin@_REDACTED] > /ip/firewall/connection/print detail
Flags: E - expected; S - seen-reply; A - assured; C - confirmed; D - dying; F - fasttrack; H - hw-offload; s - srcnat;
d - dstnat
0 SAC protocol=tcp src-address=10.XXX.X.4:17837 dst-address=10.XXX.X.1:22 reply-src-address=10.XXX.X.1:22
reply-dst-address=10.XXX.X.4:17837 tcp-state=established timeout=4m59s orig-packets=581 orig-bytes=43 788
orig-fasttrack-packets=0 orig-fasttrack-bytes=0 repl-packets=479 repl-bytes=112 764 repl-fasttrack-packets=0
repl-fasttrack-bytes=0 orig-rate=2.6kbps repl-rate=3.2kbps
1 C s protocol=icmp src-address=10.XXX.X.4 dst-address=1.0.0.1 reply-src-address=1.0.0.1
reply-dst-address=YYY.YYY.YYY.YYY icmp-type=8 icmp-code=0 icmp-id=48984 timeout=9s orig-packets=915 765
orig-bytes=26 557 185 orig-fasttrack-packets=0 orig-fasttrack-bytes=0 repl-packets=0 repl-bytes=0
repl-fasttrack-packets=0 repl-fasttrack-bytes=0 orig-rate=464bps repl-rate=0bps
2 SAC F s protocol=udp src-address=10.XXX.X.5:63230 dst-address=AAA.AAA.AAA.AAA:BBBB
reply-src-address=AAA.AAA.AAA.AAA:BBBB reply-dst-address=ZZZ.ZZZ.ZZ.ZZ:63230 timeout=2m52s orig-packets=38
orig-bytes=5 342 orig-fasttrack-packets=7 orig-fasttrack-bytes=3 016 repl-packets=36 repl-bytes=5 019
repl-fasttrack-packets=6 repl-fasttrack-bytes=2 632 orig-rate=0bps repl-rate=0bps
3 S C F s protocol=icmp src-address=10.XXX.X.5 dst-address=1.0.0.1 reply-src-address=1.0.0.1
reply-dst-address=ZZZ.ZZZ.ZZ.ZZ icmp-type=8 icmp-code=0 icmp-id=48813 timeout=9s orig-packets=2 351 003
orig-bytes=68 179 087 orig-fasttrack-packets=0 orig-fasttrack-bytes=0 repl-packets=2 347 992
repl-bytes=68 091 768 repl-fasttrack-packets=0 repl-fasttrack-bytes=0 orig-rate=464bps repl-rate=464bps
[admin@_REDACTED] > /ip/address/print
Flags: D - DYNAMIC
Columns: ADDRESS, NETWORK, INTERFACE
# ADDRESS NETWORK INTERFACE
;;; defconf
0 10.XXX.X.1/25 10.XXX.X.0 bridge
1 D ZZZ.ZZZ.ZZ.ZZ/24 ZZZ.ZZZ.ZZ.0 ether1